Is Bharat a weakling compared to China? Are we allowing ourselves to be dominated by Beijing? Do we have any strategy to counter the Dragon in not just the Indian Ocean but the whole of Asia as well? This article attempts to answer these questions and put at rest any anxieties on China- Bharat relations.
The immediate reason behind this article is the signing of rail and tunnel deals between Nepal and China. Some commentators suggest that Nepal is tilting toward China and is reducing its dependency on Bharat; these deals prove that the two nations are indeed coming closer to each other.
The signing of these deals is worrisome for India- according to these experts- because there were no worthwhile agreements, pacts or deals between China and Bharat during President Xi Jinping's stay in Mamallapuram. They forget that the Modi-Xi Jinping summit was informal in nature.
Over the years, China has made new friends in Asia and beyond.
Its Belt Road Initiative is aimed at enhancing its influence in Central Asia, East Europe, Africa, and the Indian Ocean. China is also expanding its footprints in South Asia through its CPEC project in Pakistan. Lately, the Chinese dragon has also gotten its foothold in Sri Lanka via the Hambantota port program
Many Indian security experts believe that BRI would make China the most powerful country in the world, and this would threaten Indian interests worldwide. The presence of China just across the Palk Straits is a serious security concern for Bharat.
Given this security scenario, what has been our response to the Chinese outreach all these years?
Though I am no security expert, I would still attempt to answer this question for my readers.
If I understand correctly, Bharat is trying to counter China at 3 levels- signing treaties with countries around China, playing up the democracy card, and lastly talking about religion.
Mongolia
This country is a buffer state between China and Russia just like Nepal is between India and China.
Over the past several years, China has tried to bring Mongolia within its fold but with limited success. In 2015-2016, China imposed economic sanctions on its neighbor for inviting Dalai Lama. This was a god-sent opportunity for Bharat which promptly announced a credit of $1billion for Mongolia.
Financial aid apart, there are talks of Bharat selling BrahMos missiles to Mongolia to countervail the Chinese influence.
Taiwan
This island nation is being nurtured carefully by India as a counterweight to China.
Taiwan, as we all know, broke away from mainland China after the culmination of the Revolutionary War between the nationalist and communist forces in 1949-50.
Over the years, China has made several attempts to bring Taiwan under its control but failed miserably.
Though New Delhi cut-off its relations with Taiwan in 1950, the former reached out again to Taipei in 1995 by opening the India-Taiwan Association office there. This was a part of the Look East policy of New Delhi launched in 1991. Taiwan has also opened its Taiwan Economic and Cultural Centre in Chennai.
These trade links can be made strategic as well in case China adopts a hostile attitude towards India.
Vietnam
In 2017, India offered to sell Akash, its surface to air missile to Vietnam. This move was meant to communicate India's determination to protect her borders from China.
Though very small in population and area, Vietnam is one of the strongest economies in Asia. It is located toward the south-east corner of China.
Vietnam and China have had a troubled past. Though the latter helped Vietnam gain independence from France and America, China attacked Hanoi in 1978 because it perceived that Vietnam was harming its interests. Vietnam proved more than a match for China and gave Beijing a bloody nose. Since then, there has been an uneasy peace between the two neighbors.
Japan
Like Vietnam, Japan also nurses a secret animosity toward China.
Though Japan is one of the wealthiest and economically the strongest nations in the world, it fears China for the Dragon's military might.
Japan looks to India as a credible regional ally to offset the Chinese influence in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. No wonder, that the two countries have come together on several platforms ostensibly for economic reasons.
For example, Japan and India are jointly developing the Colombo port in Sri Lanka. Another area of cooperation is Tokyo and New Delhi cooperating in setting up a bank for the development of Africa.
Maldives and Iran
Apart from the above countries, India is closely working with Maldives and Iran. Ever since the new government came into power in Male, India has quickly got into action by signing a few military pacts with this island nation. Narendra Modi, after winning the 2019 elections, made his first overseas official visit to Maldives. Please remember that China has been long trying to make this island nation as its base.
In Iran, India is building the Chabahar port that will help us gain easy access to Afghanistan, China is also present there and it would be interesting to see how the Indo-Pak-Afghanistan-China relations play out in that country.
Tibet
India is not just tying up with countries like Japan and Vietnam to build pressure upon China; it is also playing the Tibet card for the past nearly 70 years. Tibet is a red rag to Beijing and the Tibetan issue finds traction among many western capitals like Washington.
I wonder how India views the current Hong-Kong problem, will New Delhi rake up this issue to build up pressure on Beijing?
And finally the POK
Another region where China can face a challenge is the Gilgit-Baltistan area in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir.
The CPEC project is dependent on the Karakoram highway that passes through the Shaksgam valley and Gilgit-Baltistan. Shaksgam was illegally ceded to China by Pakistan a few decades ago.
By canceling Article 370 and laying claim to the whole of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir, India is now threatening to cut off any physical proximity of Pakistan and China. And this is what is bothering China.
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| Image courtesy- www.bloomberg.com |
- China opposes the revocation of Article 370
- The trade deficit with China is still increasing
- Nepal and China have signed deals that threaten India
- China still diverts waters of Brahmputra to deny Indian farmers their due share
- On Nuclear Supplier Group issue, China opposes India
The immediate fallout
The immediate reason behind this article is the signing of rail and tunnel deals between Nepal and China. Some commentators suggest that Nepal is tilting toward China and is reducing its dependency on Bharat; these deals prove that the two nations are indeed coming closer to each other.
The signing of these deals is worrisome for India- according to these experts- because there were no worthwhile agreements, pacts or deals between China and Bharat during President Xi Jinping's stay in Mamallapuram. They forget that the Modi-Xi Jinping summit was informal in nature.
China's global ambitions
Over the years, China has made new friends in Asia and beyond.
Its Belt Road Initiative is aimed at enhancing its influence in Central Asia, East Europe, Africa, and the Indian Ocean. China is also expanding its footprints in South Asia through its CPEC project in Pakistan. Lately, the Chinese dragon has also gotten its foothold in Sri Lanka via the Hambantota port program
Many Indian security experts believe that BRI would make China the most powerful country in the world, and this would threaten Indian interests worldwide. The presence of China just across the Palk Straits is a serious security concern for Bharat.
Given this security scenario, what has been our response to the Chinese outreach all these years?
India's response
Though I am no security expert, I would still attempt to answer this question for my readers.
If I understand correctly, Bharat is trying to counter China at 3 levels- signing treaties with countries around China, playing up the democracy card, and lastly talking about religion.
Encircling China
Mongolia
This country is a buffer state between China and Russia just like Nepal is between India and China.
Over the past several years, China has tried to bring Mongolia within its fold but with limited success. In 2015-2016, China imposed economic sanctions on its neighbor for inviting Dalai Lama. This was a god-sent opportunity for Bharat which promptly announced a credit of $1billion for Mongolia.
Financial aid apart, there are talks of Bharat selling BrahMos missiles to Mongolia to countervail the Chinese influence.
Taiwan
This island nation is being nurtured carefully by India as a counterweight to China.
Taiwan, as we all know, broke away from mainland China after the culmination of the Revolutionary War between the nationalist and communist forces in 1949-50.
Over the years, China has made several attempts to bring Taiwan under its control but failed miserably.
Though New Delhi cut-off its relations with Taiwan in 1950, the former reached out again to Taipei in 1995 by opening the India-Taiwan Association office there. This was a part of the Look East policy of New Delhi launched in 1991. Taiwan has also opened its Taiwan Economic and Cultural Centre in Chennai.
These trade links can be made strategic as well in case China adopts a hostile attitude towards India.
Vietnam
In 2017, India offered to sell Akash, its surface to air missile to Vietnam. This move was meant to communicate India's determination to protect her borders from China.
Though very small in population and area, Vietnam is one of the strongest economies in Asia. It is located toward the south-east corner of China.
Vietnam and China have had a troubled past. Though the latter helped Vietnam gain independence from France and America, China attacked Hanoi in 1978 because it perceived that Vietnam was harming its interests. Vietnam proved more than a match for China and gave Beijing a bloody nose. Since then, there has been an uneasy peace between the two neighbors.
Japan
Like Vietnam, Japan also nurses a secret animosity toward China.
Though Japan is one of the wealthiest and economically the strongest nations in the world, it fears China for the Dragon's military might.
Japan looks to India as a credible regional ally to offset the Chinese influence in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. No wonder, that the two countries have come together on several platforms ostensibly for economic reasons.
For example, Japan and India are jointly developing the Colombo port in Sri Lanka. Another area of cooperation is Tokyo and New Delhi cooperating in setting up a bank for the development of Africa.
Maldives and Iran
Apart from the above countries, India is closely working with Maldives and Iran. Ever since the new government came into power in Male, India has quickly got into action by signing a few military pacts with this island nation. Narendra Modi, after winning the 2019 elections, made his first overseas official visit to Maldives. Please remember that China has been long trying to make this island nation as its base.
In Iran, India is building the Chabahar port that will help us gain easy access to Afghanistan, China is also present there and it would be interesting to see how the Indo-Pak-Afghanistan-China relations play out in that country.
Tibet
India is not just tying up with countries like Japan and Vietnam to build pressure upon China; it is also playing the Tibet card for the past nearly 70 years. Tibet is a red rag to Beijing and the Tibetan issue finds traction among many western capitals like Washington.
I wonder how India views the current Hong-Kong problem, will New Delhi rake up this issue to build up pressure on Beijing?
And finally the POK
Another region where China can face a challenge is the Gilgit-Baltistan area in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir.
The CPEC project is dependent on the Karakoram highway that passes through the Shaksgam valley and Gilgit-Baltistan. Shaksgam was illegally ceded to China by Pakistan a few decades ago.
By canceling Article 370 and laying claim to the whole of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir, India is now threatening to cut off any physical proximity of Pakistan and China. And this is what is bothering China.
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